Breaking down the possibilities for No. 3 TCU (12-0) going into championship weekend before the final College Football Playoff rankings.
The Horned Frogs face No. 10 Kansas State (9-3) in the Big 12 championship game Saturday from AT&T Stadium.
For lack of something better, call it Scenario Sunday.
1. TCU wins: The Horned Frogs would be locked into no worse than third in the CFP rankings with a victory over Kansas State in the Big 12 championship game, whether by one or half a hundred. Assuming Georgia and Michigan – both huge favorites – win their conference title games, TCU would be looking at a matchup with Michigan in the Fiesta Bowl.
2. TCU loses narrowly combined with No. 4 USC’s loss: The general consensus is that TCU’s body of work, which includes six victories against teams over .500, would be enough to put TCU in the playoff as the No. 4 team over No. 5 Ohio State (11-1) and No. 6 Alabama (10-2). But nothing is a given. TCU’s margin would be razor-thin.
3. TCU loses by three touchdowns or more: Now it gets really dicey for TCU. Can you say chaos, especially with USC losing badly? The Horned Frogs would be matched against two traditional powers in Ohio State and Alabama for the final two spots. And recency bias could rear its head with a lopsided loss by TCU even though Ohio State lost badly to Michigan in its final regular-season game. For all it’s accomplished, it’s difficult to see TCU making the playoffs in that scenario. With Kansas State gaining the Big 12′s bid to the Sugar Bowl, TCU would likely be slotted into the Cotton Bowl as a consolation prize.
Twitter: @ChuckCarltonDMN
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