Mavericks-Clippers roundtable: Can Dallas take down familiar foe to start NBA playoff run?

The Dallas Mavericks and Los Angeles Clippers are set for their third NBA playoff bout in five years.

This year’s postseason battle starts in Southern California, then makes its way to American Airlines Center for Games 3 and 4. Plenty of familiar faces will feature in the first-round series, including Luka Doncic, Kyrie Irving, James Harden and Paul George.

Before Sunday’s Game 1 tip-off, SportsDay’s team of experts (beat writers Brad Townsend and Mike Curtis and columnists Tim Cowlishaw and Kevin Sherrington) answers some burning questions about the postseason.

The Mavericks also played the Clippers in the first round in 2020 and 2021, losing both times. What’s the biggest storyline this time around?

Sherrington: The Clippers hold the series edge, but December was a long time ago. The Mavs are a different team now, bolstered by the additions of Daniel Gafford and P.J. Washington and the maturation of a defense that has transformed the Mavs from a 3-point shooting team to one that thinks defense first. The Mavs have gone from the 22nd-ranked defense before the deadline to the fifth-best since. That’s a considerable improvement. The Clippers have star power and the advantage in playoff experience, but they’re also old and banged up.

Curtis: There are a lot of storylines in this first-round matchup between the Mavericks and Clippers, but the most intriguing one is the historical context between the two. This is going to be the third time in the last five years that these teams meet in the first round of the playoffs. The Clippers have the edge over the Mavericks in 2020 and 2021. Doncic was asked what’s different this time around and simply stated, “We have Kai,” referring to Irving. This is the first time Doncic will have a scorer similar to himself in the playoffs. Can the Mavs get over the hump? Only time will tell.

Townsend: It feels like I should be an expert on this topic, having been among a handful of reporters who covered the 2020 Bubble Series as well as 2021′s epic 7-gamer.

Then again I’m the guy who infamously tweeted from within the bubble that Game 4 was “over,” with Dallas facing a 21-point first-half deficit. Man, 21-year-old Luka Doncic sure taught me a lesson that day. I’m also the only DMN reporter who picked Dallas to beat LA in ‘21. Looked pretty smart when Dallas led the series 2-0 and 30-11 in Game 1.

Does anyone truly want my opinion about this year’s biggest storyline? Beyond the most obvious question mark - that of Kawhi Leonard’s health - the subplot I’ll follow with the most interest is Dallas’ ability – or inability – to dictate style of play with pace and with its two-center tandem of Gafford and Dereck Lively II. Conversely, Dallas already has proven it has the ability to take Clippers center Ivica Zubac out of the game by forcing him into switches against Doncic.

The Mavericks’ most obvious advantage in this series is size, but can they capitalize? Dallas almost completely changed the way it plays while winning 16 of 18 late-season games, but enforcing your will on one team through the course of a 7-game playoff series is far more challenging.

Cowlishaw: There’s no way to avoid Leonard and his injured knee being a huge storyline. The Clippers are a different team without him, although they have played many games with Leonard on the bench, and George usually steps up when his role is enhanced so it might not be the deal-breaker some would think. I put Irving trying to make his first extended playoff run in seven years as the top storyline. Not since 2017, his final year with Cleveland losing to Golden State, has Irving played as many as 10 games in one postseason.

Without question, the Mavericks are hoping he plays that many and several more, especially given how strongly he finished the season.

This series features six potential Hall of Famers. Which players present the biggest matchup problems for the Mavericks?

Sherrington: If Leonard is healthy, he’s a problem for anybody. He’s one of the best two-way players in NBA history. He could take on Doncic by himself, leaving Russell Westbrook for Irving. The Clippers will try to make the Mavs’ role players win the games, and it will be up to Washington and Tim Hardaway and Dante Exum to pick up some of the scoring slack.

Curtis: There is are a lot of firepower on both sides, but George has been one of the most consistent players on this Clippers team. If Leonard is not available because of his lingering knee soreness, George will take the lead on offense. The Clippers were 7-7 without Leonard this season, but had a 3-5 record without George. Defense is going to be vital in this series. George isn’t the defender he once was, but he still possesses the length and athleticism needed to defend in spurts, especially when the game slows down. Washington and Derrick Jones Jr. will have their hands full trying to contain George.

Townsend: Leonard averaged 32.1 points, 7.9 rebounds and shot 61% in the ‘21 series. Dallas had no answer for him, on either end of the court, as he also took on the challenge of defending Doncic during key stretches.

I believe that between Jones Jr. and Washington, the Mavericks can somewhat neutralize George as well as Westbrook, but IF Leonard is healthy he’ll require double teams that will open opportunities for not only George and Westbrook, but also Harden and Norman Powell.

Cowlishaw: A guy averaging 16.6 points and 8.5 assists per game shouldn’t post any particular nightmares in the playoffs. But even at 34, Harden can be more than a handful for the Mavs. He’s still a great distributor and capable of hitting 3′s, and when you foul him, he’s still money from the free throw line. Harden isn’t the MVP-type player he was five years ago in Houston, but he’s surrounded by talented scorers. Who knows how much he is driven to prove one time in the playoffs that he has more to offer than his critics suspect? Irving is too small to guard him, and you don’t want to risk Doncic getting into foul trouble with Harden’s fakes.

Who wins the series and why?

Sherrington: Mavs in six. If Dallas had the better seed, I’d have said Mavs in five. If Harden and Leonard were both healthy, it’d be different. But after the grind of a long season, a team built around older players is a tough bet. Especially if the key players are hurting. The longer the series goes, the more the Mavs will assert themselves for what should be a deep playoff run.

Curtis: The old adage is that it’s difficult to beat a team three times. That could likely translate to this series. The Mavericks will avenge their losses from 2020 and 2021 and beat the Clippers in six games. They have a good chance of stealing one of the first two games in Los Angeles because the Clippers haven’t faced this new iteration of the team with Washington and Gafford. It appears as if Dereck Lively II is ramping up at the right time as well. Dallas should emerge as the winner from this series.

Townsend: As many headaches as the Clippers’ HOF foursome and Powell present, I believe Dallas’ added size and length in Gafford and Washington give Jason Kidd more chess pieces with which to play than Tyronn Lue. Mavericks in six.

Cowlishaw: Mavericks win in seven games, a longer, tougher series that optimistic Mavs fans have in mind right now. The way Dallas finished the season, it looks like Luka and Kyrie could blitz just about anyone in the West. I wouldn’t rule out a team with George and Harden and presumably Leonard and Powell and Terance Mann, especially with Lue on the bench, one of the five best coaches in the league.

But with all that, the Mavs have the more explosive team, and Gafford has turned up the defense in the paint to a level that should allow Dallas to advance.

Find more Mavericks coverage from The Dallas Morning News here.