Texas summers have become significantly hotter and rainfall is becoming more sporadic, reshaping Texas’ weather patterns. And in the coming years, Texans will face more intense and frequent heat waves, more erratic rainfall and increasing fire risks in more areas of the state.
These are just some of the conclusions found in the latest edition of “Future Trends of Extreme Weather in Texas,” a report produced by the Office of the Texas State Climatologist at Texas A&M University in collaboration with Texas 2036.
Updated data and analysis in the new report tell us many extreme weather trends continue to accelerate in Texas, posing daunting challenges to Texas’ water supply, flood control and electric power resources. Here are a few examples:
- Texas is experiencing a dramatic rise in extreme heat, with 100-degree days probably close to four times as common by 2036 as in the 1970s and 1980s. As temperatures go up, Texans will likely keep their household thermostats steady, triggering greater demand for electricity.
- As the recent Smokehouse Creek Fire makes plain, wildfire risk is accelerating, especially in western and southern Texas. Increased dryness statewide may expand the threat eastward, with increased temperatures causing very dry conditions to develop earlier in the year, lengthening both the spring and summer wildfire seasons.
- Meanwhile, a 7% increase in summertime evaporative losses from reservoirs in less than 30 years will exacerbate drought conditions statewide as surface water supplies dry up faster. Drier soils and greater rainfall variability will further strain water resources.
- Coupled with drought is an increased risk of flooding in urban areas, especially in the Houston and Dallas metropolitan areas, spurred by a 15% increase in extreme one-day precipitation events since the late 20th century.
These findings underscore the urgent need for more strategic planning and smart investments in several key areas, including the electric grid, water supplies and wildfire management.
Last year, the Legislature took several steps that could help blunt some of the effects of these trends in extreme weather. Lawmakers approved regional water planners’ use of more extreme drought scenarios in addition to the creation of a $1 billion fund for new water supply projects. They also established a multibillion dollar fund to incent the expansion of the state’s electric generation capacity.
And recently, House and Senate leaders directed legislative committees to make recommendations ahead of next year’s legislative session relating to wildfire risks, rising insurance costs and water reliability.
These actions are responsive to voters’ concerns with extreme weather. According to Texas 2036′s Texas Voter Poll released in August 2023, 78% of voters think that the state’s weather patterns have changed over the past 10 years. The same poll found that 87% of state voters are concerned about the impact of extreme weather events on property insurance costs.
Texas’ susceptibility to extreme weather trends should continue to inform state policymakers’ decisions. Each extreme weather challenge contributes to a unique policy problem for which policymakers have several options.
We present our report and its conclusions, available for free at www.texas2036.org/weather, with the hope that they serve as an essential resource for Texans and policymakers to understand and mitigate the impact of future extreme weather events.
John Nielsen-Gammon has served as the Texas state climatologist since 2000. Jeremy B. Mazur is a senior policy adviser at Texas 2036.
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