Oscar predictions: ‘Spotlight’ and ‘Revenant’ director should win big

Before you take any of these predictions to the bank, know that I'm not much of an Oscar prognosticator. I'm more interested in the actual films than the accompanying horse race.

That said, I can try to read tea leaves as well as the next person. And as far as "should win" goes, I'm nothing if not opinionated.

Without further ado:

BEST PICTURE

Bridge of Spies, Brooklyn, Mad Max: Fury Road, Room, Spotlight, The Big Short, The Martian, The Revenant

Will win: Spotlight

Should win: Spotlight

There I go betting with my heart again. My head is starting to say The Big Short, which is also excellent. Spotlight's big SAG ensemble award has kept my hope alive.

Rachel McAdams, Mark Ruffalo, Brian d'Arcy James, Michael Keaton and John Slattery in... — Rachel McAdams, Mark Ruffalo, Brian d'Arcy James, Michael Keaton and John Slattery in "Spotlight."(Kerry Hayes / Open Road Films/TNS)

BEST DIRECTOR

George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road; Lenny Abrahamson, Room; Tom McCarthy, Spotlight; Adam McKay, The Big Short; Alejandro González Iñárritu, The Revenant

Will win: Alejandro González Iñárritu

Should win: Alejandro González Iñárritu

Every bit of blood, sweat, tears and frostbite that Iñárritu put into The Revenant is up there on the screen. The Academy likes commitment, and it will make Iñárritu the first back-to-back Best Director winner since Joseph L. Mankiewicz in 1949-50 (if you're scoring at home: A Letter to Three Wives and All About Eve).

BEST ACTOR

Bryan Cranston, Trumbo; Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl; Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant; Matt Damon, The Martian; Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs

Will win: Leonardo DiCaprio

Should win: Michael Fassbender

Leo has won every award leading to up to the Oscars, and it is, as they say, his time. But nobody is cooking right now like Fassbender.

BEST ACTRESS

Brie Larson, Room; Cate Blanchett, Carol; Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years; Jennifer Lawrence, Joy; Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn

Will win: Brie Larson

Should win: Cate Blanchett

I think Blanchett could legitimately win almost every year. But they can't do that, and Larson, coming into her own, will be welcomed to the club.

In this image released by A24 Films, Brie Larson, left, and Jacob Tremblay appear in a... — In this image released by A24 Films, Brie Larson, left, and Jacob Tremblay appear in a scene from the film, "Room." Larson was nominated for an Oscar award for best actress for her role in the film. The 88th Academy Awards will be held on Sunday, Feb. 28. (A24 Films via AP)(Uncredited / AP)

SUPPORTING ACTOR

Christian Bale, The Big Short; Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight; Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies; Sylvester Stallone, Creed; Tom Hardy, The Revenant

Will win: Sylvester Stallone

Should win: Mark Rylance

To my mind this is the most loaded top-to-bottom race; it wouldn't surprise me to see any of the five win. I say Oscar goes sentimental and plants a big wet one on Sly.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl; Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight; Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs; Rachel McAdams, Spotlight; Rooney Mara, Carol

Will win: Alicia Vikander

Should win: Rooney Mara

Mara would have a better shot if the Academy liked Carol as much I did. Vikander is a youngster on the rise, and she was terrific in both The Danish Girl and Ex Machina.