The arguments for and against Luka Doncic’s NBA MVP campaign

On the final Sunday, in a game that meant absolutely nothing to the Dallas Mavericks’ playoff seeding, Luka Doncic saw his MVP votes increase as his team’s backups lost to Oklahoma City by 49 points.

At the very least, one argument in favor of Denver’s Nikola Jokic and against Doncic disappeared. I figured all along Denver would win the West and, as a result, Jokic, whose fabulous numbers are similar to Luka’s, would capture his third MVP. And I imagine he will win. But Luka’s MVP hopes grew exponentially in the season’s last six weeks as he and Kyrie Irving carried Dallas up through the play-in crowd to the No. 5 spot where they will face the LA Clippers starting next weekend.

Jokic’s team won 57 games and Luka’s team won 50. When Russell Westbrook averaged a triple-double for the season and won the league’s Most Valuable Player award while leading a sixth-place team in the Western Conference, the Thunder finished 20 games behind Golden State. If voters could overlook that disparity in the standings, then the Mavs’ 5-seed compared to Denver’s 2-seed should mean nothing.

Before we get to Jokic, we should mention that Luka’s current season was better than Westbrook’s was seven years ago. Westbrook, freed from having to pass the ball to Kevin Durant, took total control of the Thunder offense and averaged 31.6 points, 10.7 rebounds and 10.4 assists. Luka just provided Dallas with 33.9, 9.2 and 9.8. In the raw numbers, with Luka, you get two more points and Russell gives you an extra rebound and a half and half an assist, but he also had 5.4 turnovers per game to Luka’s 4.0. Shooting wasn’t close as Luka hit 48.7% of his shots and 38.2% of his threes to Westbrook’s 42.5% and 34.3%.

Defense wasn’t an overwhelming consideration for either one, so I wouldn’t give Westbrook’s occasional willingness to lock down much consideration. The numbers, and especially the positioning in the standings, tell us that if Westbrook’s season was deserving, there is absolutely no reason not to consider Luka’s.

Now there is a more current Oklahoma City problem for Luka in the form of Shai-Gilgeous Alexander. And it’s entirely possible, despite not having Luka’s numbers, that he finishes second to Jokic just ahead of Doncic after the Thunder captured the top seed.

As for Jokic, he finished the season with 26.4 points per game, 12.4 rebounds and 9.0 assists. The edge on the boards is what you might expect a 6-11, 285-pound center to maintain. But Doncic led the league in scoring and Jokic didn’t really come close. Those seven points matter a lot in the grand scheme of things.

Jokic shoots more accurately than Luka, at least in the paint. His 58.2 field goal percentage is well beyond Luka’s 48.7. But Luka has the advantage from beyond the arc where Jokic shoots a respectable 35.9%.

I think there is a difference for voters (I am not one of them) to consider in that Luka runs the Mavericks while the Denver offense runs through Jokic. Maybe it’s a subtle difference, less than I feel it is, but the greater burden of creativity falls on the true point guard. Luka is forced to take more shots as the clock winds down on longer possessions.

Stan Van Gundy, the longtime coach and TNT broadcaster, recently called Doncic the most unstoppable offensive player he had ever seen. That covers a lot of ground. I think Mavericks fans have seen this coming for a few seasons, but the 25-year-old’s game reached its highest peak this winter and spring.

The only reason I’m not more emphatic about Luka’s case is that the Joker played nine more games than he did — 79 to 70. And in the modern era, availability has become of increased importance with players nursing minor injuries and sitting out the second game when back-to-backs are scheduled. Take away those nine extra games for Jokic, and Denver and Dallas might be even in the standings. Instead, the Nuggets tied Oklahoma City for the top spot and lost the tiebreaker.

Does it really matter if Luka fails to win it this year? It could help the Mavericks extend their season. With the votes taken at the end of the regular season, the league traditionally makes the announcement early in the second round of the playoffs. That’s something Mavs fans are aware of because of the embarrassment of 2007, when Dallas won 67 games. Dirk Nowitzki was a highly deserving MVP and he got the award — at a press conference. Don Nelson’s Warriors, 25 games behind Dallas in the standings, had taken out the Mavericks in six games.

So if form holds and Jokic collects his third MVP, the Mavs could be getting ready to play the Thunder in the second round. We’re presuming success against a team that has eliminated Luka’s Mavs from the playoffs twice, but this feels like a new era and the start of something bigger. Luka had his MVP moments back in ‘20 and ‘21. He just had an MVP season whether the award comes his way or not, and it wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world if he’s ticked off two weeks from now by not getting it. And if he finishes behind OKC’s Gilgeous-Alexander, too, that battle becomes even more intriguing.