Video Games

So, who's going to win the console wars?

No clue.

But if you want to know who is off to the best start in the current console cycle, the answer is Nintendo.

The company has been happily handing out a chart recently based on data from market research firm NPD Group that looks at how the various current and last-generation systems did in their first four months on the market in the U.S.

The Wii is the winner in that category, tallying total U.S. sales of 1.86 million consoles.

That performance crushed the numbers put up by both the Xbox 360 (1 million) and the PS3 (1.06 million) in their first four months of availability.

But remember, statistics don't always tell the whole story.

For example, back in the previous generation of systems, the era of the GameCube, Xbox and PlayStation 2, the Xbox had the best initial four-month results, while the PS2 and GameCube were basically tied for second place. But the PS2 eventually kicked both those systems to the curb, selling more than 100 million consoles worldwide.

Plus, when the Xbox 360 launched in 2005, there was a severe shortage of systems well into 2006. Who knows how many systems Microsoft could have sold if it had managed its manufacturing process with a little more skill.

Of course, the Wii has been nearly as hard to find as the 360 once was, so there are probably lots of potential Wii sales that have gone unfilled as well.

The bottom line is that you can't read too much into these numbers.

But they do show something. And that something is that the PS3 is in trouble.

After all, within about a month and a half after launch, there were plenty of PS3s on store shelves around the country, suggesting that the initial demand had been satisfied.

If more than 1.06 million people had wanted to buy a PS3, they probably could have. This suggests that the hard-core early adopters willing to pay full price for a PS3 have been satisfied, and Sony either has to start convincing casual fans that the system is worth the price, or it has to lower the price.

Persuading uncommitted gamers to drop $600 on a PS3 isn't impossible. All Sony needs is killer games that aren't available on any other platform.

So PS3 sales could dry up until then, or Sony might decide to shave a few bucks off the price to stimulate demand.

Meanwhile, Xbox 360 owners will be playing hot, exclusive games such as Guitar Hero II, Shadowrun, Forza Motorsport 2, Command & Conquer 3 and Mass Effect, while the frenzy of demand for the Nintendo Wii shows no signs of cooling.

I'm not saying Sony is doomed.

But it's definitely got its work cut out for itself.

ARCHIVES: Search for more stories on this and other topics | Search Tips

SUBSCRIBE: Get The Dallas Morning News delivered to your home